Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/9-12, likely voters):
Andy Harris (R): 36
Frank Kratovil (D): 36
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)
When we last checked into this race, Andy Harris posted a 44-28 lead in his own poll from July, and Kratovil was trailing by 43-34 in an internal poll of his own from April.
It looks like that endorsement from sitting GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest is beginning to pay off:
The economy, access to affordable health care and cutting taxes are the three top issues according to Maryland voters. And when asked whether Congressman Gilchrest’s endorsement makes respondents more or less likely to vote for Frank Kratovil, one in four independent voters and one in three voters over the age of 60 said Gilchrest’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Frank Kratovil.
Wayne Gilchrest is loved in this district. Had the Club not pushed him out, he would have won with ease. Idiots. Given the Gilchrest has gone this far for us, I would imagine he will help Kratovil some more.
This seat is still a reach, even with a strong candidate in Kratovil, but the fact that it is close is hilarious.
Where I actually believe that a high number provided for undecideds is correct. People probably know that Andy Harris out of touch and have a lot of respect for Wayne Gilcrest and his opinions… but can’t quite get themselves to commit to voting for a Democrat.
give Harris the at least a small edge if they were pushed. Kratovil needs to keep pulling in more support over the next couple months if he’s going to have a shot on election day. Keep pumping out the Gilchrest ads and get the DCCC involved while the NRCC leaves Harris and Club for Growth to fight their own battle.